You paid for the click, the visit and the first order. If that customer never buys again, the ad had to pay for itself on one order, and that is a hard bar to clear when ad costs rise. If the customer comes back, the second order arrives without a new click to pay for.

That second order is where a customer starts to be worth more than what it cost to win them. In What you can afford to pay for a customer we showed how a store going from one order to 2.5 orders a year can afford to pay more than twice as much per new customer. This article is about the part in between: getting the first-time buyer to order again.

Find your own repeat rate first

Before you change anything, look at how many of last year's first-time buyers placed a second order within twelve months. Shopify's customer cohort analysis report shows it by the month customers first bought, and in Klaviyo you can build a segment of people who placed exactly one order more than 90 days ago.

We don't give a target number here, because the right one depends on what you sell. A store selling skincare that runs out every six weeks should see far more second orders than a store selling sofas. Compare the number with your own history and with how often your product is actually needed, and look at how long the typical gap between first and second order is. That gap tells you when the flows below should go out.

The flows that bring buyers back

Post-purchase flow. It starts when the order is placed and does most of its work before the product arrives. Thank the customer, tell them what to expect, and show how to get the most out of what they bought. A buyer who knows how to use the product is more likely to use it up and need it again, and is less likely to send it back.

Replenishment reminder. For anything that runs out, time an email to the point where the product is close to empty. If most customers reorder after around 40 days, the reminder goes out a few days before that. This is the flow that gets closest to a sale without a discount, because the customer needs the product anyway.

Cross-sell based on the first order. Recommend what people who bought the same product went on to buy. A recommendation based on what the customer actually bought performs better than a bestseller list sent to everyone.

Win-back flow. When a customer has gone longer than your typical reorder gap without buying, they are drifting. A short sequence that reminds them what they bought and what is new can bring some of them back before they forget the store.

Campaigns to buyers. Flows handle the timing, campaigns handle the news. Buyers who have ordered once are your best audience for launches and restocks, so send them more than the people who never bought.

Hold back on the discount

The quickest way to get a second order is a discount code in the first email after purchase. It works, and it also teaches customers that the next order comes with a code, which shrinks your margin on every repeat order and lowers what a customer is worth.

Keep the discount for the win-back flow, where the customer is already drifting, and lead with the product everywhere else. A reminder that arrives when the product is running out does more than 15% off sent on day three.

How to tell it is working

Look at three numbers every month:

1. Share of first-time buyers who order again within your typical reorder window.

2. Revenue from the post-purchase, replenishment and win-back flows.

3. Average number of orders per customer in their first twelve months.

The third number is the one that moves your allowed cost per customer. When it rises, the ad account can bid higher for the next customer without losing money. That also means the share of revenue coming from email should rise for the right reason: more orders from the same customers, rather than email taking credit for orders the ads already brought in.

Where Markeity comes in

We build the Klaviyo flows that bring first-time buyers back, timed to how your customers actually reorder. It raises what a customer is worth to you, and with it the price you can pay for the next one. If you want to know where your own repeat rate stands, book a free 15-minute call and bring your order history.